★★★★★ 5
AI Steadily Accelerating
Format: Paperback
I read this book in 2013 when it was first published. It is now near the end of 2024, 12 years later. Back in 2013, you rarely read about AI (artificial intelligence), AGI (artificial general intelligence) or ASI (artificial super intelligence); now, I see mention of them in the press and other media almost daily.
Barrat's book attempts two things: (1) to convince the reader that artificial intelligence is here today and growing --- and its growth is accelerating, and (2) to argue that humanity MUST develop ways to instill AI with some type of morality or ethics, so that, even though its intelligence will surpass that of humanity, it will in some sense respect its creators and not turn on us. In the first effort, Barrat certainly succeeds --- the past 12 years have proved that. But, based on what I have been hearing and reading since ChatGPT hit the internet two years ago, except for a few voices crying out in the wilderness, humanity is making little if any progress on the second item --- perhaps that task is close to impossible?
Barrat defines AGI as a level of intelligence roughly equal to that of human beings. He defines ASI as a level of intelligence greater than that. He then argues that AI will soon be able to both replicate itself and increase its intelligence --- and do so more and more rapidly. In 2024, I repeatedly read that AI will reach AGI within the next 3 to 5 years --- then, how long will it be before AGI learns to improve itself? Think of intelligence measured by points on a continuum (like a number line from high school math). AGI (modern day human-level intelligence) is a fixed point on that continuum. But at what point, either somewhat smaller than AGI or somewhat larger than AGI, will AI, of its own accord, begin to move to higher and higher points on the continuum (which is what Barrat means by AI improving itself)? We have no way of knowing, but Barrat argues convincingly that this phenomenon WILL occur, and most of the book is devoted to this argument.
Digression: Our universe contains billions and billions of planets, and, I suspect, many with life, and, many of those with intelligent life. Won't a substantial number of them have gone through the AGI - ASI process? Is there no evidence of this that we can detect with our telescopes? In a universe populated with ASI's, why haven't we heard anything? Are we one of the first civilizations to develop artificial intelligence? Barrat doesn't open this Pandora's box, but I suspect he was tempted to (see pp. 90 - 92).
To the curious reader: Look through the other 5-star reviews. Most of them bring up similar, valid points. Barrat has written an intelligent, highly readable book that is also, frankly, pretty alarming. And it is not dated at all --- it reads as though it was written yesterday. It is well worth reading now and in the foreseeable future. (added in May 2025): Much of what Barrat predicts is happening. Some things are occurring or about to occur that move beyond his predictions. The curious person might read "Situational Awareness" (by Leopold Aschenbrenner), AI 2027, or Ray Kurzweil's latest effort. Floating in space without a tether might be preferable to what is coming.
Added Aug 10, 2025: With the recent release(s) of ChatGPT (up to version 5.0 now), AI can, by any reasonable measure, pass the Turing Test. Many folks regularly use ChatGPT, and it is truly stunning. Barrat mentions various individuals in OUR FINAL INVENTION, such as I.J. Good and Eliezer Yudkowsky, who have been deeply worried about AI evolving from AGI to ASI. Yudkowsky has written a new book, IF ANYONE BUILDS IT, EVERYONE DIES, that is due to come out next month. In some sense, it may serve as a sequel or extension to Barrat's book.
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Reviewed in the United States on November 5, 2024
